AlphaTrack: Suggested Signals & Set Ups – 18 November 2025

Thoughtful insights and approachable analysis.

Quick Market Overview

Markets opened the week on shaky ground, with the Dow dropping 1.4% as traders waited for postponed economic releases and a busy run of retail earnings. Updates from Walmart, Target and other household names should give a clearer sense of how shoppers are behaving as the festive period approaches, while Friday’s delayed jobs report could reshape expectations for a possible Fed move in December. Yet the real turning point may arrive on Wednesday when Nvidia reports. After recent softness in AI-linked names and a rise in investor doubt, many will look to the chipmaker to restore confidence. November has been bruising so far, on track to be the S&P 500’s weakest since 2008, and markets feel like they’re collectively holding their breath.

General Market Health (SPX500)

The S&P 500 is starting to look unsteady. Its EMAs have slipped into a bearish pattern, and the RSI falling below 50 signals a shift towards negative momentum. Markets were rattled last Thursday when President Trump signed the bill to end the government shutdown, a move that, instead of sparking relief, unleashed a round of profit-taking. With more than a month of delayed economic data about to hit all at once, traders are bracing for the possibility that the numbers could sketch a far gloomier, potentially stagflationary picture of the U.S. economy.

Potential Trade Setups

With the broader market slipping into a weaker posture and momentum indicators rolling over, very few names are showing the resilience needed for a high-conviction long setup. ORLY is one of the rare exceptions: it’s holding relative strength, maintaining constructive price action, and sidestepping the breakdowns seen elsewhere. In a week where the index is wobbling, it stands out as the only chart that genuinely meets our criteria for a potentially quality long candidate.

O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY)

O’Reilly Automotive is beginning to flex some real strength. The share price has broken its downward trendline, signalling that momentum is picking up again. That move is echoed in the RSI, which has pushed through its own descending line and climbed above 50. Holding the RSI above that level will be important, it would suggest that positive momentum is taking root and could support further gains. Keep an eye on the EMAs as well: they’re already aligned in a bullish formation and are starting to show a healthy slope and separation, reinforcing the improving technical backdrop.

The company delivered an impressive Q3 2025, posting an 8% rise in revenue to $4.71 billion, a lift in EPS to $0.85, and a solid 5.6% increase in comparable-store sales. Management raised full-year guidance to $17.6-$17.8 billion in revenue and $2.90-$3.00 in EPS, signalling firm belief in ongoing demand for everyday car-care essentials. Free cash flow remains robust at $1.20 billion for the year to date, easing slightly from last year due to higher investment spending and the timing of tax-credit receipts. Analysts are still upbeat, with a consensus 12-month target near $112, pointing to further room for appreciation. Strong execution and steady market-share gains keep ORLY’s outlook compelling, even with its richer valuation.

Hot News, Cold Logic

Tech dragged the S&P 500 lower last week as renewed scepticism over the AI-capex boom outweighed an otherwise steady earnings backdrop. Talk of overspending across the sector triggered broad profit-taking ahead of Nvidia’s results on Wednesday, with many hoping the chipmaker can calm frayed nerves. History rarely smiles on markets when tech stumbles, and if doubts around AI linger, holding a touch more cash into year-end may offer the steadier hand.

That said, pullbacks often reset the board and reveal the next wave of compelling opportunities. Should support begin to firm, we’ll be watching closely, and ready to highlight high-quality names that deserve attention on the dip. Keep an eye on future editions of AlphaTrack.

Final Thought

After an “everything-up” surge, markets have slipped back into a delicate risk-off stance: global equities are softening, Bitcoin is giving ground, and gold is retreating as a firmer dollar, fading Fed-cut expectations and fresh doubts over AI-driven growth chip away at the soft-landing story. The shine hasn’t come off the broader bull trend, though. If support begins to settle, the next phase could unveil some genuinely attractive opportunities for investors who are ready to move when the dust clears.