Tesla’s Slump: Eyes on Margins and Forward Guidance

Source: www.tradingview.com

Tesla has endured a bruising performance year-to-date, with its share price down approximately 42% in 2025. A potential silver lining is that the stock appears to have found some support, trading largely sideways since around 10 March. Nevertheless, a sense of uncertainty continues to hang over the company, and investors will be looking for clearer guidance when it reports its first-quarter earnings after the market closes today.

The market is expecting earnings per share of 36 cents and revenue of around $20.1 billion. That compares to the same period last year, when Tesla reported EPS of 45 cents and revenue of $21.3 billion.

Just as the share price appeared to find support in March, the market has gradually been pricing in weaker fundamentals — particularly after a sharp drop in first-quarter deliveries, which came in at 337,000 versus 387,000 a year earlier. That 13% decline was also below analysts’ expectations.

Moreover, there’s a growing perception that Elon Musk has been distracted by his outside ventures — notably his involvement with DOGE — while political controversies, including his perceived alignment with the Trump administration, may have dampened demand among certain Tesla customers.

Investors will be watching Tesla’s margins closely when the results are released, as any significant deterioration could trigger further pressure on the share price.

With the recent sharp decline in the stock, forward guidance will be critical. Particular attention will be paid to updates on lower-cost models and the much-anticipated robotaxi service.

From a technical perspective, Tesla is hovering around a key support level near $220 per share. Should this hold, a break in the RSI above the descending trendline — along with a move back above the 50 level — would be seen as a constructive signal.

One possible outcome is that, even if the earnings lean towards the disappointing side, the extent of the recent share price decline means the results could still be perceived as not as bad as anticipated.